23 October 2001
Today I want to discuss several topics: Windows XP, Historical Perspective, The Knowledge War, Future Medicine, and the Fighting Texas Aggies.
I've chosen not to be the first XP guy in my family. I've read that in the process of "activation" XP makes up some number that identifies up to 10 components in your computer, and won't run if you change something that doesn't match that number. MS , according to magazine reports, won't divulge the algorithm. Having used a lot of MS software, I'm going to take a skeptical stance that they will add a complication like this to the normal operation of the computer, and somehow avoid making mistakes.
Mostly, I read this "enhancement" as a clear signal that Microsoft places a higher priority on making money than they do on enabling user processing. In doing so, they are opening the door to a company who reverses those values. There's nothing wrong with making money, but MS will soon demonstrate that you can put too much emphasis on it.
We are presently dealing with terrorists and an anthrax scare. Historically, we have faced worse, and survived it. There was a cholera epidemic that killed half the population of Manhattan in 1832. Every town along the Erie Canal saw people running out into the countryside, bringing the sickness with them. Anthrax spores travel well, but it's hard to catch. So far, it appears to be an attack aimed at famous people, which is actually hurting people who carry and open mail. I'm glad that we live in an enlightened age when being sick isn't seen as God's punishment for being bad. Cholera is a virus, but people at the time thought it was an Irish disease, or a poor man's disease, or a Negro disease. Now we know that viruses and spores are not respecters of persons - anybody can get it.
Between 1894 and 1901, five heads of state were killed by anarchists. The anarchists resembled the loosely grouped Islamic fundamentalists - they weren't unified by what they were for, but rather by what they were against. Their victims included the 20th president of the US, William McKinley, shot in Buffalo NY on 6 September 1901 - a century and five days before 911. The man who shot him was an "independent anarchist" as opposed to a famous one or a member of an group.
I don't recall reading that a global coalition was formed to fight anarchy - it looks like it ran out of steam on its own. Yet, powerful people were concerned about it, and when they lost their lives, one after the other, I'm sure that many people wondered what the world was coming to. They probably wondered what would happen next, and how these things could have been allowed to happen.
History is full of stories about how the power of states waxes and wanes. It's clear that the cost effectiveness of projecting physical power correlates with the power of secular governments. It looks from here like costs are dropping and governments are strengthening these days.
Yesterday, I saw a news clip of Northern Alliance troops on horseback, advancing on Taliban positions. I realized that there is no comparison in the power of the Taliban troops and the US military. The difference in the strength of their men and ours is not much. The difference in the power of their rifles and the rocket propelled grenades and ours is not much. What's grossly mismatched is the power of American machines, and the imbalance of knowledge between the Americans and the Taliban.
In the dark, the Americans can see everyone. Everywhere. The Taliban can't see anything but the flashes. The Americans, having that advantage, have all of the initiative. The Taliban can only react. When these skirmishes are over, the power of a big knowledge gap will be clearly visible.
Last week, the US sent 100 Rangers into Kandahar and brought them all home. The message, if I understood it, was a show of force to the Taliban - "We can go where we want, when we want." Perhaps the risks for US forces were low, but this is harm's way. I suspect that the message is intended to reach moderates in the south, encouraging them to flip sides without fear of reprisal from the Taliban. God is on the side of the big battalions.
It seems inevitable that people will learn a whole new form of preventive medicine. To the extent that we have any medicine these days, it's reactive. When you get symptoms, you go to the doctor. She reacts to them with a treatment plan. Someday, when we understand the variations in the human genome and the tendencies that they beget, we'll understand what proteins that your body should be making but isn't, or vice versa. Then you'll be able to take a supplement to offset it.
There is a lot of research into cutaneous medicine delivery today, too. It is likely that your protein supplement will be a smart patch. No pills to swallow, no vitamins to chew. Just a Personal Supplement Patch.
There could be some interesting changes in the way we act. Each of us would need different things, and would work to earn our daily supplements. I can imagine a lot of personalization taking place.
I guess that "protein therapy" is less threatening to people than the idea of "gene therapy" or of cooking up perfect babies in test tubes. I suspect that some people will try those things too. Me, I just want the patch that gets me back into those size 36 pants.
I've suffered with the Aggies for years. This past weekend, they went up to Kansas State, to play a contest that I fully expected them to lose. Instead, they jumped out to a 14-0 lead.
Of late, the Aggies have played a pretty good game for 58 of the 60 minutes in the contest. The last minute of each half, they have looked like their nerves have overwhelmed their other talents. Against Notre Dame, they gave up a touchdown in the final minute of the first half. Against Colorado, they have up a touchdown at the end of the first half, and then fumbled away an opportunity to win in the final minute, resulting in a touchdown.
Against KState, the Aggies gave up a last minute touchdown in the first half. My new cheering strategy is to try to get a big lead so that the final minute collapse won't cost them the game. There was a lot of wind in Manhattan KS and the team that was moving into it had a tough time. Some years ago, I was talking to Tom Landry about football, and I remember saying, "Damn it, Tom! How many times do I have to say it? The name of the game is field position!" Actually, I never had a conversation with Old Stone Face, and he already had a deep appreciation for field position. On a windy day, one team can punt 60 yards and the other team can only punt 30 yards. In the 2nd quarter, A&M played back on their heels, and were fortunate to go into the locker room up 14-7.
In the 3rd quarter, two things became clear. One was that KState was losing players to injury almost every series. The other was that A&M had one of those amazing streaks where, in the span of just over 2 minutes, KState committed 3 turnovers. The Ags converted those into 17 points, and took a 31-10 lead.
KState has had two great kickers the last few years, but they are the only team I've seen that has more trouble kicking than A&M. One field goal and one extra point were low line drives that barely got thru the goal posts. Hey, I'd rather be lucky than good, and four points is four points.
A&M has some serious problems in the offensive line. With a talented quarterback, a stable of runners, and a pack of wide receivers, I expect more offense. On most plays, someone from the other team is in the Aggie backfield, stifling the run and forcing rushed passes. During the second half, A&M's offense never showed up, averaging less than two yards per offensive play. KState stormed back into the game, against the wind.
They scored with 11 minutes to go, making it 31-17. They scored again with 4 minutes to go, making it 31-24. A&M responded with a "three and out" series on offense, and then KState got a great punt return to the Aggie 20.
The rest of the game was a contest of strength, with KState trying to avoid losing their 4th straight game, and A&M trying to keep them out of the end zone. The excitement peaked in the final minute, when the Aggie defense actually held them off inside the 5 yard line, allowing the offense to run out the final seconds.
These guys are driving me batty, and making very hard to nap during their games. It appears that despite our problems, the Aggies have plenty of heart, and that's all that enabled them to survive the furious finish by the KState Wildcats. I swear that we are the worst 6-1 football team I've ever seen. I'd rather be lucky than good, and 6-1 is 6-1. By clinching a bowl berth, the team earned over a million dollars for the athletic department.