Date: Tue, 22 Jan 2002 18:00:06 -0600
Reply-To: Texas Rangers MLB Discussion <RANGERS@LISTSERV.TAMU.EDU>
Sender: Texas Rangers MLB Discussion <RANGERS@LISTSERV.TAMU.EDU>
From: Beau Sharbrough <beau@SHARBROUGH.NET>
Subject: Who's Hot, Who's Not - and the Law of Big Numbers

It's hard to tell for sure who will be on the Rangers roster this season. Still, taking Jamey's 40+1 roster for a starting spot, I asked myself: Who will be better this year, who will be worse? In terms of statistics only:

WORSE

ARod - This is a great player, and a real leader at a demanding defensive position. I think he'll have a sub-normal year for him - hit 300, with 35 homers. I think this year his stats will suffer while he tries to hold the team together. He hasn't had a season like his rookie year since ... his rookie year. Lots of players and fans would be happy with a season of .300 and 35 homers, but ARod will take $252 million dollars worth of heat from the great unwashed.

Igor - I expect his BA and power to fall, but I still think he'll be a lot better than what we had in right last year.

Park - tBiA will raise his ERA by over a run, but he'll win a lot of games with this offense.

Catman - I don't see .330 this year.

Todd Van Poppel - comes back to earth in front of the home fans, compared to last year in Chicago. Still a good year, and solid.

BETTER
Rob Bell - His work in the off season will pay off, Acosta will help him focus.

Kenny Rogers - I think this will be a good year for Kenny. He alternates, and this year his number is up.

Rocker - a new motion, a new team, a new man. His work in PR will help him.

Pudge - more games, good average, good power. I expect an MVP type season for him.

Raffy - more average, less power. There's no reason for this man to hit .260.

Mark Petkovsek - I could be wrong about him, but I think he's got something to prove, that he's not just in it for the money. I expect a return to his all-star form.

Mike Lamb - I probably support the Lammer more than anyone else on this list. I think this is the year that he starts driving the ball and fields incrementally better. Of course, the way it looks today, he won't be in Arlington in April.

Carl Everett - After the surgery, I expect better defensive range and better offensive stats.

Rusty Greer - See Carl Everett. If Rusty stays healthy, he's a terrific DH for this team - high OBA, good guy to have around, and can hit the ball out to end the game.

SUMMARY

GaryC was so right - how do you lose 90 games with a $90 million payroll? Well, you have to work at it a little bit every day, and get a break here and there.