Date: Sat, 8 Aug 1998 01:09:18 -0500
Reply-To: Discussion of Texas Rangers Major League Baseball Team
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Sender: Discussion of Texas Rangers Major League Baseball Team
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From: Beau Sharbrough <beau@CONNECT.NET>
Subject: Magic Numbers, revisited
Here's a post that I sent to the list in 1996 ...
As a biesbol fan, I am often asked by the unitiated - What's this magic number business? I have always replied, with an air of
mystery, that it's magic.
Since this is a Rangers list, we can speak openly about it. A magic number is the number of wins and losses needed to eliminate a single opponent. If, at the end of the season, your team has W wins and L losses, and you are tied with your opponent, the simplified standings would look like this:
Team Wins Losses Games Back ----- ---- ------ ---------- Us W L --- Them W L ---
In this situation, we are tied, and our wins plus their losses is ... W+L. Fine, right? Well, if we want to eliminate them, we need one more win or one less loss, right?
Team Wins Losses Games Back ----- ---- ------ ---------- Us W L --- Them W-1 L 0.5 Other W L+1 0.5
Let's restate that as:
Team Wins Losses Games Back ----- ---- ------ ---------- Us UW UL --- Them TW TL 0.5 Other OW OL 0.5
Some of you are hearing footsteps right now. Sneaking up behind you is the realization that if UW+TL > season length (SL), then they can't catch us. Why? because when you are tied, UW+TL=Season length. You gotta have an edge somewhere.
In the modern 162 game season (I think 144 is enough, but these guys are real marathoners), you can calculate Magic Number as 162+1-UW-TL. When it's 0, you have won enough games and they have lost enough that they can't catch you.
It's interesting that there is a relationship, approximately, between having a certain lead on a certain date and your magic number. So, the conventional wisdom that 10 games on August 1 or 5 games on Sept 1 is enough is really restateable as a ratio of Magic number to games remaining. Not many teams fold up fast enough to lose when this ratio is in their favor, but last year's Angels did one of the biggest I've ever seen. An 11 game lead in mid august ... let's see, that's about 45 games to go, so they have played about 120 games. UW-UL+TW-TL was about 22 (we're plus 20 and they're minus 2) 70-50 vs 60-60. Magic Number would be about 33, with 40 games to play - a .75 ratio.
When it's 1, I think that you're OK. When it gets under .75, you have a big advantage. The rangers are at 29, with 35 games to go.
If the ratio gets under .75, you can go .500 the rest of the way, they have to play about .750 to catch you. You know, there's a math guy from Baylor on this list, .... Weaver ... I bet he knows more about this than I do.
At any rate, the soonest that the Rangers could clinch would be 15 days, assuming that they win and the other team(s) lost daily. Since even lousy teams win 2 out of 5, it's reasonable to assume thatSeattle will win at least 14 games, and 2-3 each week. They wouldlose, if most futile, 4 games a week. If the Rangers win 4 games a week, they would make up 8 magic numbers a week, and it would be 3-1/2 weeks until they clinch ... that looks like about Sept 17 at the earliest. It's also a lousy projection because it's basically linear and nothing in baseball is linear.
For my own personal pick, I'll give the Pinealla factor some credit and choose Sept 21. And I've calculated something else, too. With the money I saved by not buying the 8 season tickets this year, I can afford the scalpers.
--- end of old post.
PS. GaryC and I got to go to the playoff game here that Elster did so badly in. I don't remember when they clinched, but I thought that they had more than a week. Does anyone know? And where are you, Charles Weaver? We miss you.
PPS. The Rangers have played some really fine baseball games the past three nights - the last Toronto game and the first two with the Bosox are real GEMS. And I think that two of them are 4-3 deals!
-- Beau Sharbrough | GENTECH99, Salt Lake City, 22-23 Jan 99 Grapevine, Texas | <beau@connect.net> | Keep gambling out of the game, and www.connect.net/beau | keep Rose and Jackson out of the Hall.