Baseball playoffs have three factors that influence the outcomes.
| The best starting pitchers are worth their weight in gold. This is the time when an ace is most valuable. This year Houston, Boston, and Minnesota all have terrific starting pitchers. Kevin Brown has taken two teams to the World Series by being unbeatable in October. |
| The hot team. Some years it seems like a team gets hot in October and just rolls over everybody. You can spot a hot team because everybody on the team hits at the same time. Houston ended the season by winning 7 straight. Anaheim won 5 of 6. |
| That unknown player who steps up. I can't remember all of the Chad Curtis / Craig Counsell types who deliver under pressure. |
They play the games for a reason, though. There are going to be some terrific games in this year's playoffs and you won't want to miss them. The quality of play in the playoffs is so good that if you aren't a baseball fan, you might be bored. The teams are well seasoned, they make almost no errors, and the seem to be standing in the right spot when every ball is hit. Everyone is hurt in one way or another - six months of daily games from coast to coast wears a man down. Playoff baseball requires an extra gear, and the great players often make their reputations in October because that's the stage where they, and the world, discover that they have another gear.
In the Divisional Playoffs, you find teams who aren't the best, but they win because it's a short series - you only have to win three games to advance.
Minnesota at New York. David vs Goliath. Small market Twins vs the Evil Empire Yankees. Johan Santana is the best starter in the postseason. Twins.
Anaheim at Boston. These are two good teams. The offenses compare evenly (Vlad and Manny, Ortiz and Glaus), the Angels bullpen is better, but the Red Sox have Schilling. RedSox.
StLouis at LA. The winningest team in baseball was the Cards, with 105 wins. Sure the Dodgers are the comeback kids. They spend too much time behind in games. StLouis.
Houston at Atlanta. Houston is the hot team. Atlanta's plans were derailed on Sunday when Chipper Jones was hit on the hand - they need him on offense. Houston.
Boston at Minnesota. Both teams have great starters and good bullpens. I think that the Bosox have a little more power. This may be the best matchup in this year's playoffs. Red Sox.
Houston at StLouis. The Stros have better pitching, but the Cards are rested. Cards.
This might be a circular argument. We consider Derek Jeter to be so great because he always steps up in the Series.
St Louis at Boston. Two great franchises, and perhaps a series for the ages. I'll go with Schilling and Pedro to win on Halloween. Garciaparra will miss the dogpile.
StLouis has some great hitters. Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen put up some spectacular numbers, all over 30 homers and all over 100 RBI and all over .300 avg. Larry Walker is old, but hit 17 homers for them after the trade, and you can't ignore the Reggie Sanders factor. Reggie has been in the world series with everyone but the Pirates. The problem is that they have competent starters - three 15-game winners and a 16-game winner - but not GREAT starters.
Boston can score runs too, but they have two great starters. Pedro has looked human this year, but he's still better than any starter on the Cardinals. As long as he's not facing the Yankees, he's one of the best since Christy Mathewson. Schilling has not looked human, and I would be surprised if the Sox lose any game he starts.
| Divisional Series | League Championship Series | World Series | |
| AL | Minnesota | Minnesota | Boston |
| NYYankees | |||
| Anaheim | Boston | ||
| Boston | |||
| NL | StLouis | St Louis | St Louis |
| Dodgers | |||
| Houston | Houston | ||
| Atlanta |
©2004 Beau Sharbrough all rights reserved