2002 MLB Playoffs

Baseball playoffs have three factors that influence the outcomes.

bulletThe best starting pitchers are worth their weight in gold. This is the time when an ace is most valuable. It's no accident that New York and Arizona played for it all last year - they had the best starters in the playoffs. This year Atlanta, Arizona, New York, Minnesota and Oakland all have terrific starting pitchers. It would appear that Oakland and Arizona have the best ones. Kevin Brown took two teams to the World Series by being unbeatable in October.
bulletThe hot team. Some years it seems like a team gets hot in October and just rolls over everybody. You can spot a hot team because everybody on the team hits at the same time.
bulletThat unknown player who steps up. I can't remember all of the Chad Curtis / Craig Counsell types who deliver under pressure.

They play the games for a reason, though. There are going to be some terrific games in this year's playoffs and you won't want to miss them. The quality of play in the playoffs is so good that if you aren't a baseball fan, you might be bored. The teams are well seasoned, they make almost no errors, and the seem to be standing in the right spot when every ball is hit. Playoff baseball requires an extra gear, and the great players often make their reputations in October because that's the stage where they, and the world, discover that they have another gear.

My first round predictions

Divisional Series - take the hot team.

In the Divisional Playoffs, you find teams who aren't the best, but they win because it's a short series - you only have to win three games to advance. 

Minnesota at Oakland. The story on this series is that both teams have tiny payrolls. Oakland had every reason to give up this year, but they won 20 straight, and they believe that they are an elite team. Minnesota avoided contraction, but they can't avoid elimination. Raiders, uh, A's.

Anaheim at NYYankees. The defending AL champs against a team that's overachieved this year. The Yankees have more of everything - but including playoff experience. Anaheim has better pitching, overall, but the playoffs aren't played with the back of the rotation. Yankees.

StLouis at Arizona. The Rams underachieved in the playoffs, and the Cardinals overachieved in the regular season. Even though the DBacks have such great starting pitchers, I think that the Cards are the real wild card in this bracket. StLouis.

San Francisco at Atlanta. My favorite player, Barry Bonds, against my next favorite player, Greg Maddux. Barry has been on 5 playoff teams and they all lost in the first round. I think that the Braves would be nuts to pitch to Barry. And I think they'll advance easily. Atlanta.

League Championship Series - take the pitchers.

Anaheim at Minnesota. Both teams have good starters and good bullpens. I think that the Angels have a little more power. I expect a great 7 game series. Angels.

San Francisco at StLouis. The Cards have better pitching, and I think that they'll overcome my man Barry Bonds. Cards.

World Series - take the great players.

This might be a circular argument. We consider Derek Jeter to be so great because he always steps up in the Series.

San Francisco at Anaheim. Barry Bonds' dad was my favorite player ever. The Geriatric Giants have got to win now or never be close. Anaheim is the hot team, and they look stronger than the Giants. So did Atlanta and StLouis. This is the time for Barry to step up. I hope that the Angels pitch to him.

 

Well, the Divisional Series were a surprise for me. Both wild cards advanced, all three 100-win teams lost. In all four series, the team with the least regular season victories advanced. I went out on a limb and picked the Cards to upset the DBacks, but I was wrong about the other three. And now we have more baseball to watch!

 

Okay, the League championships got to me too. Both wild cards advanced. These two teams are hot, they both expect to win every time out, and the 7th inning on each night is something to see.

There was a controversial play in game 5 of the NLCS. Benito Santiago was rounding third base and collided with Miguel Cairo. It was clearly obstruction, but the 3rd base umpire did not award home plate to Santiago. Tim McCarver was emphatic that he believed that the wrong call had been made, with a trip to the World Series at stake. Not 15 minutes later, Steve Palermo, the supervisor of MLB umpires, was in the TV booth explaining the rules. Steve was shot in Dallas when attempting to prevent a mugging, and has always been held in the highest esteem by me as a person with great courage and integrity. I was very impressed that he would take such effective and prompt action to address the call by the umpire. Right or wrong, the call was made, and The Man was on the scene to explain it.

 

Divisional Series League Championship Series World Series
AL Minnesota Minn Anaheim
Oakland
Anaheim Anaheim
NY Yankees
NL StLouis St Louis San Francisco
Arizona
San Francisco San Francisco
Atlanta
 

A few stats for those who don't already know them.

Team W HR HRA BB BBA OPS OPSA
Minn 94 167 184 472 439 769 739
Oak 103 205 135 609 474 771 699
Ana 99 152 169 462 509 773 706
NYY 103 223 144 640 403 809 704
StL 97 175 141 542 547 763 709
Az 98 165 170 643 421 769 702
SF 95 198 116 616 523 786 691
Atl 101 164 123 558 554 741 677